Ko kutenderera kweRMB kwatanga here? (Chitsauko 1)

Kubva munaChikunguru, kumahombekombe uye kumahombekombe kweRMB mitengo yekuchinjana inopesana nedhora reUS yakawedzera zvakanyanya, uye yakarova nzvimbo yepamusoro yeiyi rebound muna Nyamavhuvhu 5. Pakati pavo, iyo onshore RMB (CNY) yakakosheswa ne2.3% kubva pakaderera paChikunguru 24. . Kunyange zvazvo yakadzokera shure mushure mekuvhiyiwa kwakatevera, kubva munaAugust 20, iyo RMB yekutsinhana nedhora reUnited States ichiri kukosheswa ne2% kubva munaJuly 24. Musi waNyamavhuvhu. 20, iyo yekumahombekombe RMB yekutsinhana inopesana nedhora reUS yakasvikawo padanho repamusoro muna Nyamavhuvhu 5, ichitenda ne2.3% kubva pakaderera paChikunguru 3.

Tichitarisa kumberi kumusika weramangwana, iyo RMB yekuchinjana mari inopesana nedhora rekuAmerica ichapinda mugero rekumusoro here? Isu tinotenda kuti mutengo wekuchinjana weRMB uchienzaniswa nedhora rekuAmerica iko kutenda kusingaite nekuda kwekudzikira kwehupfumi hweUS uye tarisiro yekudzikiswa kwemhindu. Kubva pamaonero emusiyano wemubereko pakati peChina neUnited States, njodzi yekuderera kwakanyanya kweRMB yakadzikira, asi mune ramangwana, tinoda kuona zvimwe zviratidzo zvekuvandudza hupfumi hwenyika, pamwe nekuvandudzwa kwehupfumi hwenyika. mapurojekiti makuru uye mapurojekiti azvino, iyo RMB yekutsinhana kwemari inopesana nedhora reUS isati yapinda mukutenderera. Parizvino, mwero wekutsinhana kweRMB uchienzaniswa nedhora rekuAmerica ungango chinja mumativi ese.

Hupfumi hweUS huri kudzikira, uye RMB iri kungotenda.
Kubva muzvinyorwa zvehupfumi zvakaburitswa, hupfumi hweUS hwakaratidza zviratidzo zviri pachena zvekuderera, izvo zvakambokonzera kunetseka kwemusika nezvekuderera kweUS. Nekudaro, tichitarisa kubva kuzviratidzo zvakaita sekushandisa uye indasitiri yebasa, njodzi yekuderera kweUS ichiri yakaderera, uye dhora rekuAmerica harisati rasangana nedambudziko rekushaikwa kwemari.

Musika wemabasa wadzikira, asi hausi kuzowira mukuderera. Huwandu hwemabasa matsva asiri ezvekurima muna Chikunguru akawira zvakanyanya kusvika ku114,000 mwedzi-pa-mwedzi, uye huwandu hwekushaikwa hwakakwira kusvika ku4.3% kupfuura zvaitarisirwa, zvichikonzera kuderera kwe "Sam Rule". Kunyange hazvo misika yemabasa yadzikira, huwandu hwevanhu vadzingwa basa hausati hwadzikama, zvikuru nekuti huwandu hwevanhu vari kushanda huri kudzikira, izvo zvinoratidza kuti hupfumi hwave kutanga kutonhora uye hausati wapinda mumawere.

Maitiro ebasa eUS kugadzira uye maindasitiri ebasa akasiyana. Kune rumwe rutivi, kune dzvinyiriro huru pakuderera kwemabasa ekugadzira. Tichitarisa kubva kune indekisi yebasa yeUS ISM yekugadzira PMI, kubvira iyo Fed yakatanga kukwidza mitengo yemubereko kutanga kwa2022, index yakaratidza kudzikira. Kubva muna Chikunguru 2024, index yaive 43.4%, kuderera kwe5.9 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura. Kune rumwe rutivi, basa muindasitiri yebasa rinoramba rakasimba. Tichitarisa indekisi yebasa yeUS ISM isiri-kugadzira PMI, kubva muna Chikunguru 2024, index yaive 51.1%, yakakwira 5 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura.

Zvichienderana nemamiriro ekuderera kwehupfumi hweAmerica, dhora rekuAmerica rakadonha zvakanyanya, dhora rekuAmerica rakadzikira zvakanyanya richienzaniswa nedzimwe mari, uye nzvimbo refu dzehedge funds padhora rekuAmerica dzakadzikira zvakanyanya. Data yakabudiswa neCFTC yakaratidza kuti kubva muvhiki yeAugust 13, nzvimbo yehomwe yakareba mumadhora ekuAmerica yaingova 18,500 mijenya, uye muchikamu chechina che2023 yakanga inopfuura 20,000 mijenya.